Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 29.293036 31.553469 34.000145 36.862481 40.141769 43.809088 4.826029e+01
2025-04-20 26.500197 29.634025 33.249454 37.794355 43.453332 50.409304 5.984735e+01
2025-04-27 24.363619 27.903677 32.161293 37.782701 45.213734 55.031636 6.963228e+01
2025-05-04 23.467653 27.449688 32.420861 39.290311 48.912701 62.596697 8.509142e+01
2025-05-11 22.247503 26.421543 31.776749 39.435595 50.661061 67.617871 9.805261e+01
2025-05-18 21.538310 25.957407 31.780181 40.398965 53.636822 74.979279 1.173717e+02
2025-05-25 20.340010 24.740464 30.637627 39.563129 53.706096 77.558621 1.286049e+02
2025-06-01 18.905382 23.110955 28.799281 37.515405 51.570838 75.899381 1.303505e+02
2025-06-08 17.954717 22.086708 27.740758 36.540804 51.055185 77.049614 1.388917e+02
2025-06-15 17.451723 21.647154 27.477687 36.746320 52.516125 82.157978 1.594145e+02
2025-06-22 16.907949 21.117276 27.043049 36.632620 53.390776 86.272175 1.796834e+02
2025-06-29 16.162071 20.264809 26.083274 35.596687 52.484390 86.484498 1.884607e+02
2025-07-06 15.167229 19.103994 24.735257 34.054695 50.909180 85.918392 1.983811e+02
2025-07-13 14.835666 18.890464 24.811824 34.905492 54.030185 97.108165 2.653026e+02
2025-07-20 14.334393 18.394586 24.412975 34.897340 55.473335 104.899373 3.350569e+02
2025-07-27 14.172015 18.384288 24.760458 36.219050 59.904410 122.804213 5.289721e+02
2025-08-03 13.774415 17.993802 24.468451 36.346194 61.782462 134.418927 7.637647e+02
2025-08-10 13.548286 17.849009 24.559326 37.188233 65.482315 154.613688 1.463635e+03
2025-08-17 13.048866 17.255668 23.868306 36.457763 65.257209 160.403789 2.140249e+03
2025-08-24 12.390956 16.389954 22.679211 34.662722 62.116521 153.129372 2.102133e+03
2025-08-31 11.941392 15.834882 21.988677 33.805618 61.265746 155.401224 2.917510e+03
2025-09-07 11.703300 15.601624 21.828409 33.986507 63.128124 170.883454 1.011152e+04
2025-09-14 11.432719 15.305115 21.542693 33.886442 64.234782 184.012389 4.133628e+06